Predicting Conflict

A recent issue of The Economist features an intriguing article titled, The Science of Civil War: What makes heroic strife. It talks about how computer models are being developed that can predict the outbreak and spread of civil conflict. It's a fascinating read with some obvious implications for humanitarian security practitioners. (There's a lively discussion on whether this type of technology is really even viable at the always interesting Small Wars Journal.)

Unfortunately, no links to additional information sources were included with the article; typical for print pieces being leveraged to online. Oh well. If you want to learn more about the programs discussed, here are your clickies:

Spatio-Cultural Abductive Reasoning Engine (SCARE) and at West Point

Condor

Aptima (E-MEME)

Worldwide Integrated Crisis Early Warning System

Open Source Indicators

Temporal-Probabilistic Rule System